Evaluating systems change
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Evaluating systems change can seem daunting
Systems change work is often collaborative, adaptive and long-term. Progress is rarely linear, and no single organisation can claim responsibility for the changes it hopes to see. Yet organisations still need to understand whether they are making progress, learn from what is happening, and demonstrate value to partners, funders and communities.
This practical guide is designed to help organisations understand, evaluate and learn from systems change efforts. It introduces a straightforward five-step process for approaching evaluation in complex contexts, helping you make informed choices about what to measure, how to gather evidence, and how to use learning to improve your work.
Whether you are new to systems change evaluation or looking to strengthen existing practice, the guide provides a practical starting point for designing evaluations that are useful, proportionate and grounded in the realities of complexity.
Who is this evaluating systems change guide for?
- Charities and social enterprises working to influence systems
- Funders supporting systems change initiatives
- Partnerships and collaborations working across organisational boundaries
- Policymakers and place-based partnerships.
By Elliot Trevithick, and Erwin Hieltjes
The five-step approach
This guide takes you through five practical steps for evaluating systems change.
1. Set expectations
Systems change often takes time, is non-linear, and involves many contributing factors.
This step explores why evaluating systems change requires greater patience and acceptance of uncertainty, and how to build realistic expectations about progress, evidence, and impact among key stakeholders.
2. Agree your overall aims
Systems change can make proving impact more difficult, but learning and improvement more important than ever.
This step helps organisations decide what they need from evaluation, encouraging them to always invest in learning and improvement, and to critically assess whether trying to prove impact is a worthwhile use of resources.
3. Identify your evaluation questions
Not all evaluation questions require the same level of evidence.
This step focuses on understanding the system, your role within it, the changes beginning to emerge, and the impact those changes may be having. It encourages a curious mindset and broader questions than evaluation often asks in more traditional service delivery.
4. Choose your methods
There is no single best way to evaluate systems change.
This step introduces a range of methods and approaches, helping organisations choose those most appropriate for their context, resources and learning needs. It encourages thoughtful selection rather than defaulting to familiar tools.
5. Plan your approach
Evaluation should support learning, not simply accountability.
This final step focuses on using evidence to strengthen decision-making, adapt approaches and deepen understanding over time. In complex systems, learning is not an end point but an ongoing part of the work.
Complexity should not deter us. Instead, it should encourage us to work together, learn from one another, and develop a better understanding of what progress looks like.
Grant Gordon OBE
Founder and Chair, Ethos Foundation
Why this matters
Across the impact economy, there is growing investment in collaboration, partnerships, networks and systems change approaches.
To make the most of these investments, organisations need evaluation approaches that reflect how change happens in complex systems. Better evaluation helps us understand progress, adapt our work, build stronger evidence, and share learning across the sector.
Complexity should not be a barrier to evaluation. It is a reason to evaluate differently.
Download the full report
Evaluating systems change – NPC October 2026c
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By: Erwin Hieltjes, Elliot Trevithick
DownloadAcknowledgements
This publication has been shaped by the contributions of many colleagues and partners. In particular, we would like to thank Dr. Katie Shearn, Director of the Advanced Wellbeing Research Centre (AWRC) at Sheffield Hallam University, whose collaboration, expertise and thoughtful challenge made a significant contribution to the development of the methodology explored in this guide.
We are also deeply grateful to Sport England, whose long-term commitment to systems change and evaluation has created the space to test, refine and apply these ideas in practice. Their support has enabled us to learn alongside partners across the sector and, importantly, to share that learning openly through this publication.
Finally, we would like to thank Grant Gordon OBE, Ethos Foundation for contributing the foreword and for his longstanding commitment to advancing systems change thinking within the early years sector.
Looking for tailored support?
Every systems change effort is different. If you'd like help designing a systems strategy, developing a theory of change, understanding your role in a system, or evaluating progress, our team can help.
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