Theory of Change: responding to 6 common criticisms

Theory of change is one of NPC’s core approaches to increasing impact. We’d even say that we’ve played a role in embedding the practice in the UK impact sector over the last 20 years.

But a lot of criticism is still levied at theory of change approaches. It’s ‘too academic’ and ‘too complex’, but also ‘can’t deal with complexity’. It’s ‘unrealistic’ for many organisations to dedicate time to developing. It ‘can’t deal with uncertainty’.

We’ve put theories of change to test. And we think theory of change can withstand the criticisms levied at it–as long as you do it right.

Here, I want to respond to 6 common criticisms and how to avoid them.

A theory of change is too linear/simplistic and can’t deal with complexity

It doesn’t have to be linear – it can be messy! The over-simplification often comes when we try to distil complex thinking into a simplified snapshot for communication.

Theory of change can deal well with complexity. It can help you understand your role in a wider context, mapping the relationships and dynamics within a system that might influence the change you’re trying to achieve.

It can help you consider what you may be in control of or have influence over vs. what you may be interested in happening but have very little role in.

For more complex scenarios, we recommend using a theory of change in partnership with systems thinking tools like systems mapping to help root your thinking in a systemic view.

A theory of change can’t deal with uncertainty

We think it’s actually great at this! As long as you consider your assumptions.

Sometimes our ‘theory’ will be based on new or untested areas where you don’t know how things will pan out or you need to gather more evidence to understand how change in this area works. That’s fine!

It just means that you are making an assumption and you need to give it time to see if it holds true, based on your experience and evidence. Once you’ve done so, you can go back and revise the theory.

It’s unrealistic to have enough time to dedicate to developing

This is a very real challenge for many organisations.

But while it may require upfront time investment it can simplify things further down the line by providing a strong basis for project planning and measurement.

To make the process more manageable, it can help to:

• break the process down into chunks
• complete a theory of change over time
• link the development of a theory of change to existing work, such as strategy development or annual reviews.

A theory of change is too static

This comes down to how you use a theory of change.

Done well and embedded into design, measurement, and delivery a theory of change can be a great planning and measurement tool. It can be revised and updated as you learn by experience.

We have found this a process that’s dynamic enough to allow for reflection and adaptation.

If you find it too static, you may not be using it to its fullest potential.

Change doesn’t happen like it’s mapped out in a theory of change

This is true. And it’s why a theory of change should be seen as a living document.

But you can get the first iteration of a theory of change off on the right track if you bring the right voices, evidence, and experience in. This includes people with lived experience of the problems you are trying to solve.

Beyond that, contexts shift and things will happen beyond your control but if you take an informed approach – you can map out your best estimate of how change will happen and justify the thinking behind this.

A theory of change process is too academic/complex

The process can be flexed. You don’t have to follow a step-by-step process.

You can devote more time and energy to different elements, you can use different tools to help map out your thinking.

But at the end of the day change is complex and there are no simple solutions to capturing complex thinking – though we try to make it as straightforward as we can!

New developments in theory of change

Part of addressing criticism is evolving and changing with the times.

Theory of change is based on ideas from the 1950s and became popular in the impact sector in the 1990s.

Some of the recent developments include:

• Promotion of participatory approaches to ensure theories are relevant, realistic and promote equitable practices
• Greater reflection on the unknown. This includes emphasis on assumptions and unintended outcomes which helps to test thinking and manage challenges
• Incorporating systems thinking into theories of change, emphasising that change processes are dynamic and interconnected with multiple feedback loops.

Conclusion

At NPC, we’ve put theory of change to test with our work with clients like the Media Trust, the Friends Provident Foundation, and RNID. We’d love to help you create the theory of change that will help your organisation thrive.

Get in touch below to find out more.