Theory of Change: how your purpose should shape your process

If you think about a ‘theory of change’ what comes to mind? Likely it’s a flow diagram with labels like ‘activities’, ‘outcomes’, and ‘impact’. Or perhaps it’s a long narrative document. Or even an engaging graphic.

But behind that diagram, document, or graphic was a process of creating it. That process is an equally important part of the theory of change.

Ideally this process did a few things like looking at your evidence base, consulting with wider stakeholders and taking time to critique what you arrive at. But even if initially it was just you, sitting down at a desk and getting ideas down on paper – that’s the start of the process.

So how do you decide the right process to create your theory of change? The key is to think about your purpose: what do you need your theory of change to do for you? Thinking through the why will lead you to the how. And getting the process right will strengthen your final output.

4 main purposes of theory of change

At NPC we talk about four main purposes of a theory of change:

• Developmental: using a theory of change to take stock, reassess priorities, and/or design new work.
• Descriptive: using a theory of change to summarise and communicate your what, why, and how.
• Evaluative: using a theory of change to help identify and prioritise what to measure.
• Strategic: using a theory of change to help consider key elements of your strategy. For example goals, external environment, and resources.

Of course a theory of change may contain elements of all four of these purposes. But thinking about your primary purpose can help guide how you should get started.

So how might your process and output be different, depending on the purpose?

Developmental purpose

What will the process look like?

An in-depth, considered process. It will take more time, involve more people, and ask challenging questions like:

• ‘what is the real cause of this?’
• ‘what is the best use of our time and resources?’
• ‘why do we think this?’

You will likely consult widely, gather a range of perspectives, and challenge yourselves to arrive at a consensus.

What will the output look like?

Likely an internal document, at least initially. It doesn’t need to be a polished diagram. The important thing is that it needs to capture detailed thinking. That could be in diagram and/or narrative form.

Descriptive purpose

What will the process look like?

A shorter process. But you still need time to consider how best to communicate with intended audiences.

Generally, a descriptive theory of change will follow once the detailed, developmental thinking has been done. It will often focus on how to sequence activity or sense-make this thinking to communicate more clearly, likely with external audiences.

What will the output look like?

A diagram or graphic, perhaps with a short narrative, that clearly and accessibly communicates your theory of change.

Evaluative process

What will the process look like?

A evaluative process will focus on testing your theory of change – considering what evidence sits behind it and where that evidence could be strengthened.

It also includes considering what assumptions you may be making about how change happens in your theory of change, and whether gathering evidence will help you be confident that these assumptions will hold true.

It may include considering which changes are of most interest to you, or will best demonstrate your organisation’s contribution to change. These considerations can help you use your theory of change to prioritise what you measure.

The ambition doesn’t need to be to measure everything in your entire theory of change every time.

What will the output look like?

A diagram or narrative, but with aspects like assumptions and evidence base well documented.

May include some way of highlighting prioritised areas for measurement, e.g. bold boxes.

Strategic process

What will the process look like?

Will focus on interrogating the context in which your theory of change takes place.

This includes thinking about:

• how your resources (knowledge, skills, capacity) match up to the challenges you face.
• what other actors might influence parts of your theory of change.
• the enabling factors to creating change.

A strategic process may include some developmental thinking (see above), but it focuses on thinking systematically. It can help you identify strategic opportunities, for example potential collaborations and joint work.

What will the output look like?

Likely to be a high-level output, such as an organisation-wide theory of change. It may also be linked to other overlapping and complementary theories of change.

Conclusion: getting the process right

Whichever process you use there are a few key principles to getting your process right:

• Devote enough time to the process
• Bring the right people into the room
• See the theory of change as just that, a ‘theory’ that needs to be tested and revised

We’d love to hear your experience of creating your theory of change. We have the tools and expertise to guide you – get in touch below.